Mateus Alves vs Igor Marcondes
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value on Mateus Alves at 1.599 — the market overestimates his win likelihood relative to his recent form and career record; require ~2.273+ to consider betting Alves.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for Alves: ~62.6% vs our estimate ~44%
- • Break-even odds for our estimate: 2.273; current 1.599 is well below that
Pros
- + We used conservative probability given documented poor recent form and losing career record
- + Clear numeric gap between market-implied probability and our estimate makes assessment straightforward
Cons
- - No data provided on Igor Marcondes, limiting comparative assessment
- - Surface/venue details and possible recent injuries or matchup nuances are not in the research, increasing uncertainty
Details
We estimate Mateus Alves' true chance to win this final at about 44%. His career record (21-28) and recent results show poor form, and the available research does not provide data on Igor Marcondes to justify a materially higher probability for Alves. The market prices Alves at 1.599 (implied ~62.6%), which is substantially richer than our estimate and therefore offers negative expected value. To break even on our 44% estimate, Alves would need decimal odds of at least 2.273. Given the information gap on the opponent and Alves' recent form, we do not find a value bet on either side at the quoted prices.
Key factors
- • Alves' overall win rate is below 50% (21-28), suggesting underdog-level baseline
- • Recent match form shown in research is poor (consecutive losses), lowering short-term win probability
- • Market prices imply Alves is a clear favorite (1.599) which exceeds our probability estimate; opponent data is missing, increasing uncertainty