Mathieu Scaglia vs Luca Wiedenmann
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Mathieu Scaglia at 2.39 — our estimated win probability (45%) exceeds the market-implied 41.8%, producing ~7.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Market implies Scaglia ~41.8% but our estimate is ~45%
- • Positive EV at current home price (2.39)
Pros
- + Price offers a cushion vs our probability estimate
- + Scaglia's slightly better recorded outcomes in the available dataset
Cons
- - Both players display poor recent form — outcome is high variance
- - Very limited match samples and no H2H data increase uncertainty
Details
The market prices Luca Wiedenmann as the clear favorite (implied ~65.7%) while Mathieu Scaglia is offered at 2.39 (implied ~41.8%). Our read of the limited data shows both players with weak recent records on similar surfaces, but Scaglia has a marginally better career record (3-7 vs 2-5) and more match data to judge, suggesting the contest is closer than the market implies. Given the small sample sizes and both players' recent losses on clay, we conservatively estimate Scaglia's true win probability at 45.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 41.8%, producing positive expected value at the available 2.39 price.
Key factors
- • Scaglia has a marginally better overall record (3-7 vs 2-5) in the available sample
- • Both players show poor recent form on clay, reducing the favoritism edge for Wiedenmann
- • Small sample sizes and no clear H2H increase variance but also leave room for market mispricing