Highlights

• • Market: Away (Slavic) 1.515 implied ~66.0%; our fair estimate ~60%
• • EV at current favorite price is approximately -0.091 (negative)

Pros

• + Slavic has a larger match sample and a better overall win record
• + Market recognizes Slavic as favorite, which aligns with available performance indicators

Cons

• - Favorite's price does not offer value versus our probability estimate
• - Scaglia's small sample size creates volatility but not enough evidence to justify backing him at 2.36

Details

We view Nikola Slavic as the stronger player based on a larger sample size and a better career win rate (14-15 vs 3-7 for Scaglia). The market prices Slavic at 1.515 (implied ~66.0%). After adjusting for limited data, surface neutrality in the Research, and Slavic's moderate career win rate, we estimate Slavic's true win probability at ~60.0%. At that probability the favorite's current price (1.515) is over-optimistic and produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.60 * 1.515 - 1 = -0.091). Scaglia at 2.36 would need a true win probability >42.4% to be +EV; given his weaker record and smaller sample size we do not assign him that probability. Therefore no side offers positive value at the quoted odds.

Key factors

• • Career records: Slavic 14-15 (larger sample) vs Scaglia 3-7 (small sample)
• • Market implies ~66.0% for Slavic; our estimated true probability is ~60%, producing negative EV
• • No H2H or clear surface advantage in the provided Research; limited recent-match clarity increases uncertainty