Matilde Jorge vs Angelina Voloshchuk
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical profiles and no clear injury or form advantage, the heavy market favoring of Matilde looks overstated; Angelina at 3.98 offers strong value versus our 46% win estimate.
Highlights
- • Market-implied home win ≈83% vs our estimate ≈54%
- • Underdog price 3.98 >> fair price 2.174 → large positive EV (≈+0.83)
Pros
- + Large discrepancy between market price and our estimated probability
- + Both players' profiles in the research are similar, reducing justification for the heavy favorite
Cons
- - Limited depth in the provided data (no H2H, ranking, or contextual tournament details)
- - High EV stems from a strong market mispricing; unseen factors could justify the heavy favorite
Details
The market heavily favors Matilde Jorge at decimal 1.203 (market-implied win ~83.2%) while Angelina Voloshchuk is priced at 3.98 (market-implied ~25.1%). The published profiles show near-identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form and surface history (both have played clay and hard), so there is no clear performance-based reason to accept an 83% win probability for the home player. We estimate a modest edge to the home player but see the true probability much closer to 54% for Matilde and 46% for Angelina. At our estimated 46% for Angelina the fair price is ~2.174; the available 3.98 offers substantial overlay. Calculating EV: 0.46 * 3.98 - 1 = +0.8308 (83.08% ROI on a 1-unit stake). Even allowing for uncertainty and bookmaker margin (market vig implied ~8.3%), the quoted away price remains well above our minimum required odds, so the away side represents value.
Key factors
- • Both players show near-identical career records and recent match summaries in the provided data
- • Market implies an outsized probability for the home player (≈83%) that is not supported by the comparable profiles
- • Available away price (3.98) is well above the fair threshold (~2.174) derived from our probability estimate