Highlights

• • Book implied probability ~90.8% for Jorge
• • Our estimated true probability 80% → market overstates Jorge's chances

Pros

• + Jorge is the market favorite and likely the stronger name on paper
• + Short price means low variance if she is indeed stronger

Cons

• - Career record and recent form are poor (10-21 with recent losses)
• - Information on opponent is absent, creating uncertainty and upside for an upset

Details

We compare the bookmaker price (Matilde Jorge 1.101 => implied win probability ~90.8%) to our assessment of her true chance. Jorge's career record (10-21) and recent form listed show more losses than wins and recent defeats, which reduces confidence in an extremely high true probability. We estimate Jorge's true win probability at 80% given her overall losing record and the limited positive indicators in the research. At that estimate EV = 0.80 * 1.101 - 1 = -0.119 (negative), so the current market price is overconfident and does not offer value. To be +EV at the current price Jorge would need a true win probability above ~90.83%, which we do not support. Conversely, to get positive value on Jorge based on our 80% view you would need decimal odds >= 1.25. Because the available information is limited and the market price implies an implausibly high probability relative to Jorge's form and record, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Matilde Jorge career record 10-21 indicates overall losing form
• • Recent matches show defeats; limited positive recent performance
• • Market implies ~90.8% for Jorge which appears overstated given available data