Highlights

• • Current market implies Matilde ~91.7% but her documented recent form is poor
• • Astrid's experience and surface versatility justify a materially higher true chance than 14.3%

Pros

• + Large margin between our fair odds (3.571) and the market price (7.0)
• + Experience and career win-rate edge for the away player

Cons

• - Limited match-specific data (H2H, injuries, exact surface conditions) increases uncertainty
• - Underdog tennis bets are high variance even with positive EV

Details

We view the market price as skewed heavily toward the home player (Matilde Jorge) at 1.09, which implies ~91.7% chance for the favorite. The research shows Matilde has a limited and weak recent record (10-21 across 31 matches) while Astrid Wanja Brune Olsen has a long, positive career record (559-507 across 1,066 matches) and broader surface experience. With no head-to-head or injury detail provided, the credible baseline is that Astrid's experience and historical win rate make her far likelier than the 14.29% implied by 7.0. We conservatively estimate Astrid's true win probability at 28% given career form, surface versatility and the clear mismatch between career profiles. At decimal 7.0 this gives strong value: EV = 0.28 * 7.0 - 1 = 0.96 (96% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The minimum fair decimal required for a break-even bet at our probability is 3.571, well below the current 7.0 quote, so we recommend the away underdog at current prices while noting uncertainty from limited match-specific data.

Key factors

• • Astrid has far greater career experience and a positive overall win rate (559-507)
• • Matilde's recent documented record is weak (10-21 in 31 matches) suggesting vulnerability
• • Market pricing (Matilde 1.09) implies an unrealistically high probability for the favorite, creating value on the away