Highlights

• • Home odds 1.17 imply ~85.5% win probability
• • Our conservative estimate (82%) yields ~-4.1% ROI at current home price

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on a strong favourite
• + Low variance outcome if favourite is indeed dominant

Cons

• - Insufficient match-specific data (form, surface, injuries, H2H) to justify taking a contrarian line
• - Short favourite odds leave very slim or negative edge unless true win chance exceeds ~85.5%

Details

We assign a conservative true-win probability to the home favourite given no external data and the heavy market lean. The market prices Matilde Jorge at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%). We estimate her true probability at 82.0%, which is materially lower than the market-implied probability, so the favourite is over-priced relative to our view and offers negative expected value at the quoted price. At our estimate the away player would carry ~18.0% implied probability, which makes the away price look attractive relative to that estimate, but this is driven purely by our conservative home estimate and not by specific form, surface, injury or H2H information — we therefore decline to recommend taking the contrarian away shot without any corroborating evidence. Given the lack of research and small margin differences, we do not recommend backing either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • No external match data available; probability is a conservative estimate
• • Market strongly favours home at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%)
• • Required probability for +EV at 1.17 is ~85.47%, above our conservative estimate