Highlights

• • Implied market probability for Tan is ~67.8%, which looks inflated given both players' similar profiles
• • Jorge at 2.52 yields an estimated EV of +13.4% based on our conservative 45% win probability

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current home price under our probability model
• + Both players' similar records reduce the likelihood that the market favorite is that heavily superior

Cons

• - Research is limited — no H2H, detailed surface-specific stats, or injury info provided, increasing uncertainty
• - If unobserved factors (ranking, recent practice, localized form) favor Tan, the value may evaporate

Details

We see the market pricing Harmony Tan as a clear favorite at decimal 1.476 (implied ~67.8%), while Matilde Jorge is available at 2.52 (implied ~39.7%). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career spans and identical overall records (10-21) and similar recent results, suggesting they are more evenly matched than the market implies. Given the lack of distinguishing form or surface advantage in the provided data, we assign a more balanced true probability of 45% for Jorge and 55% for Tan. At our estimate, the home price of 2.52 offers value: EV = 0.45 * 2.52 - 1 = +0.134 (13.4% ROI on a 1-unit stake). The favorite price for Tan (1.476) appears overbet relative to our probability and offers negative EV by our model. We therefore recommend backing Matilde Jorge only because the current home odds exceed our minimum required odds of 2.222 for a 45% win chance, producing positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records (10-21) and recent form in the provided research
• • Market heavily favors Harmony Tan, creating a potentially exploitable price discrepancy
• • No clear surface or injury advantage is present in the provided data, increasing uncertainty and favoring a more balanced probability estimate