Highlights

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Bobichon (63.3%) exceeds our estimated 56%
• • Turriziani would need >44.4% true chance to be +EV at 2.25, which we do not support

Pros

• + Bobichon is the market favorite and likely has some on-paper edge on clay
• + Both players have clay experience and are familiar with ITF-level conditions

Cons

• - Recent form shows multiple losses for both players, increasing outcome variance
• - Current favorite price requires a higher win probability than we estimate (no positive EV)

Details

We compared the market prices (Bobichon 1.581, Turriziani 2.25) to our read of the players. Both competitors have similar ITF-level records on clay (Bobichon 9-13, Turriziani 10-14) and recent results show more losses than wins for each, so there is no clear form edge to justify a higher true probability than the market for the favorite. Using a cautious estimated true probability for Bobichon of 56.0% (reflecting a modest on-paper edge but accounting for recent inconsistency and small-sample noise), the implied market probability (63.3%) overprices Bobichon relative to our view, producing a negative expected value at the current 1.581 price. The away price would require Turriziani to be >44.4% likely to win to be +EV at 2.25; given the similar profiles and recent losses we do not see evidence to support that higher probability. Therefore we do not find value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have comparable ITF records on clay with losing overall records
• • Recent form: both have multiple recent losses and no clear momentum advantage
• • Market favors Bobichon strongly; required win probability for +EV is higher than our estimate