Matisse Bobichon vs Daniel De Jonge

Highlights

• • Estimated true win chance for De Jonge: 48% vs market-implied 43.3%
• • Positive EV of ~0.109 units per 1 unit stake at current odds 2.31

Pros

• + Price (>2.08) exceeds our min required odds for value
• + Slightly stronger career record and larger sample for De Jonge
• + No injury reports that reduce value thesis

Cons

• - Both players have losing overall records, increasing variance
• - Limited recent-match detail and no head-to-head data raise uncertainty

Details

We find value on Daniel De Jonge at the available price (2.31). The market implies De Jonge's win probability at ~43.3% (1/2.31), while our assessment places his true chance closer to 48%. Key inputs: both players have sub-50% career win-rates on the provided records, but De Jonge has a slightly higher overall match volume and a marginally better win-rate (15-18 vs 9-13), and both are comfortable on clay so surface does not materially favor the listed favorite. Recent form snippets show Bobichon with multiple recent losses, which suggests the market favorite price (1.556, implied ~64.3%) may be inflated. With our 48% estimate versus the market's ~43.3%, the price 2.31 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.109 per 1 unit stake). We see no reported injuries or disqualifying conditions in the provided research to materially change this view.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for away (43.3%) is below our estimated true probability (48%)
• • De Jonge has a slightly better career win-rate and larger match sample (15-18 vs 9-13)
• • Both players have clay experience; Bobichon shows recent losses suggesting form disadvantage