Matisse Bobichon vs Gian Luca Tanner

Highlights

• • Market implies Tanner ~38.6%; we estimate ~42.0%
• • EV at current odds ≈ +0.088 per 1 unit stake (≈8.8% ROI)

Pros

• + Clear positive EV against the current price (2.59)
• + Both players have clay experience, reducing surface-based uncertainty

Cons

• - Small career sample sizes and limited recent-match detail increase variance
• - No reported H2H or injury data in the supplied research, adding uncertainty to the estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate of each player's true chance. The market prices Matisse Bobichon at 1.452 (implied ~68.9%) and Gian Luca Tanner at 2.59 (implied ~38.6%). Based on the provided profiles both players have similar career win rates on clay (Bobichon ~41% across 22 matches, Tanner ~40% across 10 matches) and recent results slightly favor Tanner (a recent win and mixed form for Bobichon). Given similar clay experience, slightly fresher recent form for Tanner, and the market heavily favoring Bobichon, we estimate Tanner's true probability at 42.0%. At the offered decimal 2.59 this yields positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 2.59 - 1 ≈ 0.088). We therefore identify Tanner (away) as a value play because the market-implied probability (38.6%) understates our estimate (42.0%). We note limited sample sizes and absence of direct H2H or injury detail, so uncertainty remains higher than for well-documented players.

Key factors

• • Both players show similar career win rates on clay (~40%), limiting a strong favorite edge
• • Recent form modestly favors Tanner while Bobichon’s recent results include multiple losses
• • Market heavily favors Bobichon (implied ~68.9%) which appears overstated given available performance data and small-sample uncertainty