Highlights

• • Book market overprices Droguet relative to normalized career numbers plus conservative adjustments
• • Matteo's implied price (2.75) crosses our minimum required odds (2.532) for value

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current prices using conservative probability
• + Clear numeric basis: career records and recent-match adjustments drive the estimate

Cons

• - Edge is modest; outcome sensitive to small changes in true probability
• - Droguet has the stronger overall record and some recent wins in the supplied data, which could invalidate the assumed edge

Details

We compare the bookmaker price (Matteo 2.75, implied 36.36%) to our assessment. Using career win rates from the provided profiles (Matteo 27-36 ≈ 42.9%; Droguet 37-25 ≈ 59.7%) and normalizing, then discounting Matteo slightly for weaker recent results while keeping the longer-term baseline, we estimate Matteo's true chance at ~39.5%. That implies the book underestimates Matteo (true p 39.5% vs implied 36.36%), creating positive expected value at the current home decimal price of 2.75. We use the quoted 2.75 for the EV calculation and obtain an ROI of ≈0.086 (8.6%) on a 1-unit stake. The edge is modest but real under these assumptions; risk remains because Droguet has the stronger overall record and fresher recent form, so our probability is conservative relative to career numbers.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Droguet stronger (37-25) vs Matteo (27-36), but not overwhelmingly so when normalized
• • Recent form: Matteo shows poorer recent results in the supplied recent matches, so we discount his baseline slightly
• • Market pricing: Bookmaker implies 36.36% for Matteo; our conservative estimate of 39.5% produces positive EV at 2.75