Highlights

• • Home favored heavily (1.08) but justified by surface and activity gap
• • Estimated win probability (95%) yields ~2.6% ROI at current price

Pros

• + Clear surface advantage for Mesaglio
• + Opponent lacks clay history and recent relevant matches

Cons

• - Both players have limited/poor overall records; sample sizes are small
• - Edge is small (low margin) and vulnerable to variance or unreported conditions

Details

We compare the market price (Matteo Mesaglio 1.08 => implied ~92.6%) to our assessment. Mesaglio has clay experience and recent match activity on clay, while Erwin Troebinger has only hard/carpet matches on record and appears to be inactive on the surface and recently; that surface mismatch and activity gap favor Mesaglio. Given those factors we estimate Mesaglio's true win probability is higher than the book's implied 92.6%, producing a small positive edge at the available 1.08 price.

Key factors

• • Mesaglio has clay match experience while Troebinger has no recorded clay matches
• • Mesaglio has recent match activity on clay; Troebinger shows longer inactivity and only hard/carpet matches
• • Market price implies ~92.6% for Mesaglio; we assess his true win chance at ~95%, creating a small edge