Matthew William Donald vs Lukas Pokorny

Highlights

• • Pokorny estimated win probability: 57%
• • Current market price for Pokorny (1.68) produces negative EV (-0.042)

Pros

• + Pokorny has a marginally better recent record and experience in higher-level events
• + Both players are comfortable on clay, so no major surface mismatch

Cons

• - Market fully prices Pokorny's edge, leaving no positive expected value
• - Limited data (no H2H, no injury info) increases uncertainty and downside risk

Details

We estimate Lukas Pokorny is a slight favorite based on comparable records (40-27 vs 35-25) and recent results, but our assessed win probability (57%) is lower than the market-implied probability at the current favorite price. The market prices Pokorny at 1.68 (implied 59.5%) and Donald at 2.10 (implied 47.6%). Using a conservative true probability of 57% for Pokorny yields a negative expected value at the available 1.68 quote (EV = 0.57*1.68 - 1 = -0.042), so there is no positive-value play on either side given the current prices and the limited surface/form data available.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (1.68) is ~59.5% for Pokorny, above our estimate
• • Both players have clay experience; recent form slightly favors Pokorny at higher-tier events
• • No H2H data or injury reports increases uncertainty and limits an edge