Matthew William Donald vs Lukas Pokorny
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on the home underdog Matthew William Donald at 2.41 because the market overstates Pokorny’s edge; our 45% probability yields ~8.5% ROI at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market-implied favorite probability (~64.7%) seems overstated given similar records and surfaces
- • Donald at 2.41 requires a true win chance >41.5% to be +EV; we estimate ~45%
Pros
- + Clear positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Both players' profiles and surfaces suggest a tighter match than market pricing
Cons
- - Limited detailed match-level data and no head-to-head to refine the estimate
- - If Pokorny has unreported form/injury advantages or strong surface preference, edge may evaporate
Details
We compare the market-implied probabilities to our estimate of true win chances. The book gives Lukas Pokorny ~64.7% (1/1.546) and Matthew William Donald ~41.5% (1/2.41). Career records and surface history show both players are close in level (Donald 35-25; Pokorny 40-27) and both have experience on clay and hard courts, so a large gap in win probability is unlikely. Given similar resumes and recent mixed form for both, we estimate Pokorny’s true win probability closer to ~55% and Donald’s ~45%. At the current price of 2.41 for Donald, that implies positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.41 - 1 = +0.085 (8.5% ROI). In short, the market appears to overprice Pokorny relative to our assessed probabilities, making Donald (home) the value play at the listed odds.
Key factors
- • Career win rates and surface exposure are similar; no dominant edge for Pokorny justifying 1.546
- • Recent form for both players is mixed with no clear momentum advantage
- • Book margin inflates implied favorite probability; underdog price (2.41) offers value if true edge is modest