Matthias Ujvary vs Ognjen Milic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value backing Ognjen Milic at 1.205 because our conservative estimate (86%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~83%), yielding ~3.6% ROI.
Highlights
- • Market implies 83.0% for Milic; we estimate 86.0%
- • Edge is modest but positive at current odds (EV ≈ 0.036)
Pros
- + Clear record and form advantage for Milic in the provided profiles
- + Both players compete on clay; Milic's clay performance appears stronger
Cons
- - Edge is small — sensitive to small estimation error
- - Research lacks H2H and detailed match-context information; sample sizes are limited
Details
We assess value on Ognjen Milic (away). The market price 1.205 implies an implied win probability of ~83.0% (1/1.205). From the provided profiles Milic has a substantially stronger record (22-14) and specific clay experience compared with Matthias Ujvary (9-20). Recent results in the Research also show Milic with more consistent outcomes on clay. We conservatively estimate Milic's true win probability at 86.0%, higher than the market-implied 83.0%, producing a small but positive edge. Key uncertainties are limited head-to-head data and small-sample noise in the provided recent-match stats, so the edge is modest but present at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Milic career record (22-14) materially stronger than Ujvary (9-20)
- • Both players listed on clay; Milic shows consistent clay results in the Research
- • Market-implied probability (~83.0%) is slightly below our conservative true estimate (86.0%)
- • Limited H2H and small-sample recent-match noise increase uncertainty