Matthias Ujvary vs Ognjen Milic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify a small positive edge on Ognjen Milic at 1.287 based on stronger clay form and event-specific wins; the value is modest but present.
Highlights
- • Milic strong clay record and recent wins at Kursumlijska Banja
- • Market price (1.287) implies ~77.7% vs our 80% estimate
Pros
- + Clear form and surface advantage for Milic
- + Current odds are slightly richer than our fair price, giving positive EV
Cons
- - Value margin is small; upset risk remains in ITF matches
- - Limited head-to-head data and small-sample randomness at this level
Details
We see clear form and sample-size advantages for Ognjen Milic: a 25-10 record with clay as his primary surface and recent match wins at Kursumlijska Banja indicate strong event-specific form. Matthias Ujvary's 9-20 record and recent losses on clay suggest a clear mismatch. The market price for Milic (decimal 1.287, implied probability ~77.7%) appears slightly conservative versus our estimated true win probability of 80%. Using p=0.80, the minimum fair decimal price is 1.250; the available 1.287 produces positive expected value. Given the limited head-to-head and small-sample noise inherent to ITF-level events, we remain conservative but still find a small value edge on Milic at the quoted odds.
Key factors
- • Milic superior overall and clay record (25-10) vs Ujvary (9-20)
- • Milic recent wins at the same event indicate good current form on venue clay
- • Market-implied probability (77.7%) is slightly below our 80% estimate, creating small positive EV