Matyas Cerny vs Cedrik-Marcel Stebe

Highlights

• • Market favorite Stebe implied 86.4% vs our 83% estimate — negative EV at current odds
• • Surface uncertainty (grass) increases volatility; neither player has clear grass form edge

Pros

• + Stebe's better win-loss record and recent Challenger results favor him
• + If weather/conditions favor fast grass, the favorite's baseline advantage grows

Cons

• - Both players lack grass match history, making probability estimates less certain
• - Current market price for Stebe (1.157) offers no value versus our projection

Details

We estimate Cedrik-Marcel Stebe is the stronger player based on a better recent record (18-9 vs 17-22) and recent wins on the Challenger circuit, but both players show little-to-no grass track record which increases outcome uncertainty. The market price for Stebe (1.157 decimal, implied win probability 86.4%) is very short. We estimate Stebe's true win probability at ~83.0% (0.83) — reflecting his superior form but applying a discount for the unfamiliar grass surface and small sample sizes. At p=0.83 the fair decimal price is 1.205; the current 1.157 is too short, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.83 * 1.157 - 1 = -0.0397, ~ -3.97% ROI). Conversely, Matyas Cerny at 5.09 (implied 19.7%) looks unlikely to be underpriced given his weaker record and lack of grass evidence; we estimate his true upset chance ~17.0%, below the market implied. Because neither side shows positive EV at current widely-available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Stebe has the clearer recent form and superior overall record (18-9 vs 17-22)
• • Match is on grass but both players have little/no documented grass experience—raises uncertainty
• • Market strongly favors Stebe (implied 86.4%); our adjusted true probability (83%) does not justify that short price