Max Basing vs Arthur Weber
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices: favorite Max Basing looks slightly overrated by the market relative to our 76% estimate, so we pass.
Highlights
- • Basing favored and in-form on hard courts
- • Market price (1.26) is below our fair price (~1.316) → negative EV
Pros
- + Basing has a strong recent win rate and local tournament form
- + Surface alignment (hard) favors the home favorite
Cons
- - Market underprices the favorite relative to our model — no value
- - Limited H2H and small-sample volatility could shift true probability
Details
We estimate Max Basing as the clear favorite based on stronger recent win rate on hard courts and tournament form in Bali. Converting the market price (home 1.26) to an implied probability gives ~79.4%; our independent assessment of Basing's true win probability is ~76% (0.76) after adjusting for sample size, opponent quality and surface. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.316; the offered 1.26 is below our fair price and produces a negative expected value, so we do not recommend backing either side at current prices. The away price (3.67) would require an implied probability ≤~24.0% to show value; we estimate Weber’s chance is higher than that, so the away quote is also without value.
Key factors
- • Max Basing strong recent form on hard courts and high season win rate (22-6)
- • Arthur Weber is competent on hard but has mixed surface results and more overall matches (25-14 overall)
- • Current market price (1.26) implies ~79.4%; our adjusted estimate is ~76% giving no edge
- • Small sample and limited head-to-head information increases uncertainty