Max Basing vs Fitriadi M Rifqi

Highlights

• • Max Basing has a markedly better overall record and hard-court focus
• • Book odds are slightly shorter than our fair-implied price, producing a small negative EV

Pros

• + Home/favored player with superior career win rate and hard-court experience
• + Market consensus aligns with our assessment of Max as favorite

Cons

• - Current odds are too short to produce positive expected value
• - Both players show recent losses, adding variance to any prediction

Details

We estimate Max Basing is the clear favorite based on career records (18-6 vs 11-14) and heavier hard-court experience, but the current market price (1.12) already reflects a very high win probability. Comparing our estimated true win probability (88.0%) to the bookmaker-implied probability (≈89.3%) shows no positive edge: at the quoted 1.12 decimal price the expected value is slightly negative. With both players showing recent losses and no injury information, uncertainty remains, and the available margin does not justify placing a bet on either side at current prices.

Key factors

• • Clear disparity in career records: Max Basing 18-6 vs Fitriadi 11-14
• • Surface: match on hard courts favors Max Basing who primarily plays hard
• • Market price already implies a very high probability (1.12 -> ~89.3%), leaving no value