Max Basing vs Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi

Highlights

• • Basing: 18-6 career record in provided profile
• • Market implies ~90.5% for Basing; our conservative estimate is ~75%

Pros

• + Strong career win rate in the supplied profile
• + Plays on hard courts (matches event surface)

Cons

• - Current price (1.105) implies a probability above what the available data justifies
• - No information provided on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi to justify market’s heavy depreciation of his chances

Details

We compared the market price (Max Basing 1.105) to a conservative estimate of his true win probability based only on the provided profile. The profile shows a strong overall record (18-6) and play on hard courts, which supports a high win probability but not near the market-implied 90.5% given the limited and incomplete recent-match detail and no information on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi. Using a cautious estimated true probability of 75% for Basing yields a required decimal price of ~1.333 to be +EV. At the current 1.105 the EV is negative, so no value exists at supplied prices.

Key factors

• • Home player Max Basing has a strong overall record (18-6) across 24 matches
• • Profile indicates experience on hard courts, matching event surface
• • Research contains no usable data for the opponent, increasing uncertainty and downside risk