Highlights

• • Market implies 91.1% chance; our view is 93.0%
• • Positive but modest EV (~+2%) at the current price

Pros

• + Clear form and surface advantage for Max Basing
• + Current price is slightly softer than our fair odds, producing value

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to probability estimation error
• - Limited head-to-head and truncated match detail increase uncertainty

Details

We view Max Basing as a clear favorite based on available performance data: a 18-6 overall record (75%) with primary experience on hard courts, versus Nitin Kumar Sinha's weaker 10-23 record and recent losses on clay. The market price of 1.097 implies a 91.1% win probability. After accounting for surface alignment, recent form divergence, and the disparity in win rates at this level, we estimate Max's true win probability at 93.0%. That probability implies fair decimal odds of 1.075; the market's 1.097 therefore offers positive expected value. EV calculation: 0.93 * 1.097 - 1 = +0.020 (≈ +2.0% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty from limited head-to-head data and truncated match details, so our edge is modest but real at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Max Basing's superior recent win-loss record and strong results on hard courts
• • Nitin Kumar Sinha's poor overall record and recent losses (form disadvantage)
• • Market-implied probability (91.1%) is slightly lower than our estimated true probability (93.0%), creating a small edge