Max Basing vs S D Prajwal Dev

Highlights

• • Basing is the deserved favorite based on form and surface history
• • Current price (1.09) does not offer positive expected value versus our model

Pros

• + Basing: dominant recent results and proven hard-court wins in Bali
• + Clear model separation between the players makes a tidy threshold for required odds

Cons

• - Market is tight — only a small gap between implied and our estimated probability
• - Short prices mean bankroll sensitivity to line movement or model error

Details

We estimate Max Basing to be a clear favorite based on a much stronger recent record (22-6) and specific recent wins on hard courts at the Bali event, while S D Prajwal Dev has a losing overall record and mixed form. The market price for Basing (decimal 1.09) implies a win probability of ~91.7%; our assessed win probability for Basing is 90.0%, meaning the market is slightly overpricing the favorite and there is no positive expected value at the current quote. For our tiered-odds approach, we would only consider backing Basing if we could obtain at least ~1.111 (or better) where our model shows break-even and any higher price yields positive EV. Given the narrow gap between our estimate and the market, we do not recommend a bet at the current odds.

Key factors

• • Max Basing strong recent form and 22-6 career match record with recent wins on hard courts at Bali
• • S D Prajwal Dev has an overall losing record (20-25) and mixed recent results on hard
• • Market-implied probability (1.09 => ~91.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (90%), removing value