Highlights

• • Bailly is the stronger statistical profile (higher win rate).
• • Current prices leave little to no edge for either side.

Pros

• + Backing Bailly at current price would be low variance if one believes book probability is accurate.
• + Market is consistent with available form and records; low likelihood of a clear misprice.

Cons

• - No positive expected value at quoted prices (EV slightly negative for the favorite).
• - Limited additional data (no H2H or clear surface advantage) increases outcome variance.

Details

The market makes Gilles Arnaud Bailly the clear favorite at decimal 1.503 (implied ~66.5%). Based on the available player profiles we estimate Bailly is the stronger player here (career record 47-21 vs Max Houkes 36-25) and both have clay experience, so a true win probability for Bailly around 66% is reasonable. At that probability the bet on Bailly at 1.503 yields a small negative edge (EV ≈ -0.8% per unit). The home underdog (Houkes) is unlikely to have a true win probability above 41% required to justify the current 2.44 price given Bailly’s superior record and recent form notes, so we do not find value on either side at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Career win percentages favor Bailly (47-21 vs Houkes 36-25)
• • Both players have clay experience; no clear surface-based edge for the underdog
• • Market-implied probability (1.503 => ~66.5%) is in line with our estimated probability, leaving no positive edge