Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability 92% vs market-implied ~90.9%
• • Min required odds for break-even: 1.087; current price 1.10 meets that

Pros

• + Clear experience and results advantage for Houkes
• + Current price just above our break-even threshold, producing positive EV

Cons

• - Tiny margin of value—low ROI per stake (≈1.2%)
• - Short odds mean variance and bookmaker vig can quickly erode returns

Details

We view Max Houkes as a clear favorite based on far greater match experience (61 matches, 36-25) versus Richard Antoni's limited sample (4 matches, 1-3). Both players have recent clay activity, but Houkes' deeper match history and better overall record lead us to estimate a higher true win probability than the market-implied probability at the current price. The market price Home=1.10 implies ~90.9% win chance; we estimate Houkes' true win probability around 92%, producing a small positive edge at 1.10. Given the short odds, this is a low-margin value opportunity rather than a large overlay.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Houkes 61 matches vs Antoni 4 matches
• • Recent clay activity for both but stronger overall record for Houkes (36-25)
• • Market-implied probability (90.9%) slightly below our estimate (92%), producing a small edge