Max Basing vs Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi
Tennis
2025-09-11 03:47
Start: 2025-09-11 03:20
Summary
No pick
EV: -0.171
Current Odds
Home 1.019|Away 37.16
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Max Basing_Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi_2025-09-11
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the favorite is priced too short (1.105) relative to a conservative 75% win estimate, producing a negative EV.
Highlights
- • Basing: 18-6 career record in provided profile
- • Market implies ~90.5% for Basing; our conservative estimate is ~75%
Pros
- + Strong career win rate in the supplied profile
- + Plays on hard courts (matches event surface)
Cons
- - Current price (1.105) implies a probability above what the available data justifies
- - No information provided on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi to justify market’s heavy depreciation of his chances
Details
We compared the market price (Max Basing 1.105) to a conservative estimate of his true win probability based only on the provided profile. The profile shows a strong overall record (18-6) and play on hard courts, which supports a high win probability but not near the market-implied 90.5% given the limited and incomplete recent-match detail and no information on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi. Using a cautious estimated true probability of 75% for Basing yields a required decimal price of ~1.333 to be +EV. At the current 1.105 the EV is negative, so no value exists at supplied prices.
Key factors
- • Home player Max Basing has a strong overall record (18-6) across 24 matches
- • Profile indicates experience on hard courts, matching event surface
- • Research contains no usable data for the opponent, increasing uncertainty and downside risk