Max Basing vs S D Prajwal Dev
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the book's odds on Max Basing (1.09) are slightly too short compared with our 90% win estimate; we'd wait for >=1.111 to consider a bet.
Highlights
- • Basing is the deserved favorite based on form and surface history
- • Current price (1.09) does not offer positive expected value versus our model
Pros
- + Basing: dominant recent results and proven hard-court wins in Bali
- + Clear model separation between the players makes a tidy threshold for required odds
Cons
- - Market is tight — only a small gap between implied and our estimated probability
- - Short prices mean bankroll sensitivity to line movement or model error
Details
We estimate Max Basing to be a clear favorite based on a much stronger recent record (22-6) and specific recent wins on hard courts at the Bali event, while S D Prajwal Dev has a losing overall record and mixed form. The market price for Basing (decimal 1.09) implies a win probability of ~91.7%; our assessed win probability for Basing is 90.0%, meaning the market is slightly overpricing the favorite and there is no positive expected value at the current quote. For our tiered-odds approach, we would only consider backing Basing if we could obtain at least ~1.111 (or better) where our model shows break-even and any higher price yields positive EV. Given the narrow gap between our estimate and the market, we do not recommend a bet at the current odds.
Key factors
- • Max Basing strong recent form and 22-6 career match record with recent wins on hard courts at Bali
- • S D Prajwal Dev has an overall losing record (20-25) and mixed recent results on hard
- • Market-implied probability (1.09 => ~91.7%) exceeds our estimated true probability (90%), removing value