Highlights

• • Market implies 57.5% for Beauge; we estimate 62%
• • Surface and profile tilt towards the home player

Pros

• + Clear surface matchup advantage for Beauge
• + Positive EV at current widely-available odds (1.741)

Cons

• - Both players show mixed recent form and limited high-quality sample size
• - No head-to-head data available to confirm matchup dynamics

Details

We prefer Maxence Beauge (home). The market price of 1.741 implies a win probability of ~57.5%, but our assessment assigns Beauge ~62% chance based on: (1) better overall record (27-25 vs 15-20), (2) clear surface edge — Beauge has substantial clay experience while Gautier's profile is almost entirely hard-court, and the Bagneres De Bigorre ITF event is typically on clay, and (3) marginally stronger recent activity on comparable surfaces. There is no reliable H2H available and both players show mixed recent form, so we apply conservative uplift for surface and sample-size-adjusted form. Comparing our estimated 62% to the market 57.5% yields positive expected value: EV = 0.62 * 1.741 - 1 ≈ 0.079 per unit stake. Given uncertainty (limited head-to-head data and recent losses for both), we rate this a medium risk value bet rather than a low-risk lock.

Key factors

• • Beauge has more matches and a better win-loss record overall
• • Surface advantage: Beauge experienced on clay vs Gautier primarily hard-court
• • Market-implied probability (57.5%) is below our estimated true probability (62%)