Highlights

• • Reymond favoured and has grass experience; market implies ~71.1% win chance
• • Our assessed true probability for Reymond (66%) yields negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Clear surface edge for Reymond and more grass history
• + Market correctly reflects favourite status; avoids forcing a bet where value is absent

Cons

• - Limited detailed recent-match stats in the provided research constrain precision
• - If unforeseen factors (injury, withdrawal, weather) appear, prices could shift and invalidate this view

Details

We compared the quoted prices (Bertimon 2.84, Reymond 1.407) to our assessed win probabilities. Arthur Reymond is the clear favourite on grass: his profile shows grass experience while Maxence Bertimon's profile does not list grass as a surface, and Reymond has a longer recent match history. Bertimon's career win rate is slightly higher overall, but surface mismatch and Reymond's grass experience swing our true probability toward the favourite. Using a conservative true probability for Reymond of 66% (0.66) the market price of 1.407 implies ~71.1% and therefore offers negative expected value (EV = 0.66*1.407 - 1 = -0.071). The underdog (Bertimon) is implied at ~35.2% by the 2.84 price; we view his true chance lower than that or at best similar, so no positive EV on the underdog either. Given both sides show negative EV versus our assessed probabilities, we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Surface: match on grass and Reymond has recorded grass matches while Bertimon's profile does not list grass
• • Recent form and match volume favour Reymond's experience on faster/grass-like conditions
• • Market pricing strongly favours Reymond (1.407); implied probability exceeds our assessed true probability