Maxence Bertimon vs Trey Hilderbrand
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a very small positive edge on Maxence Bertimon at 2.24 (EV ≈ +0.8%), but the margin is marginal and sensitive to estimation error.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~44.6% for Bertimon; our model gives ~45%
- • EV is positive but tiny (≈0.008), so outcome uncertainty is high
Pros
- + Price of 2.24 slightly undervalues Bertimon against our probability estimate
- + Both players are accustomed to hard courts, limiting tactical surprises
Cons
- - Edge is very small and could disappear with minor probability shifts
- - Research data is limited (no H2H, few detailed match stats), increasing model risk
Details
We compare market-implied probabilities (Home 2.24 -> 44.6%; Away 1.629 -> 61.4%) to our assessment of true chances. Both players have similar recent records and experience on hard courts, but available match-level serving numbers (strong 1st-serve performance for Hilderbrand in recent events) are limited and noisy. After adjusting for surface neutrality, comparable win rates, and the small sample sizes in the profiles, we estimate Maxence Bertimon's true win probability at 45.0%. At the current price of 2.24 this yields EV = 0.45 * 2.24 - 1 = 0.008 (≈0.8% ROI). The edge is very small, so while the price offers positive expected value under our model, it is marginal and sensitive to estimation error.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability overstates the favorite (Hilderbrand) relative to our model
- • Both players have similar win rates and recent play on hard courts, reducing a large edge
- • Limited, noisy performance data (small sample sizes) increases estimation uncertainty