Highlights

• • Bertimon: superior career win-rate and more matches played
• • Current odds for Bertimon (1.546) produce a negative expected value vs our probability

Pros

• + Clear quantitative edge to Bertimon in career record and experience
• + Both players' recent activity on hard court reduces surface uncertainty

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head or detailed recent-form statistics provided to refine probability further
• - Market still offers short favorite odds that compress EV; small sample sizes increase variance

Details

We compare the market prices (Away Bertimon 1.546 implied 64.7%, Home Rivet 2.33 implied 42.9%) to our assessment based on the provided profiles. Bertimon presents a modestly stronger case: 25-22 career record (53.2% win rate over 47 matches) vs Rivet's 15-18 (45.5% over 33 matches), both have recent hard-court activity in Monastir, and Bertimon has broader match exposure. Given that, we estimate Bertimon's true win probability around 60% (0.60). At the current favorite price 1.546 that implies an EV of 0.60*1.546 - 1 = -0.072 (negative). The home price would require a much higher true probability for value (Rivet's form and career numbers do not justify increasing his chance above the market-implied ~43%). Therefore neither side offers positive expected value at the available decimals, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Bertimon's better overall win-rate (25-22) and greater match volume vs Rivet (15-18)
• • Both players have recent hard-court matches in Monastir, so surface advantage is minimal
• • Market implies Bertimon at ~64.7% which exceeds our estimated true probability (~60%), producing negative EV