Maxence Rivet vs Timeo Trufelli
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices Rivet as an ~82.6% favorite, but the available data (18-20 career, mixed recent form, no H2H) does not support that level of probability; no value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Market implied probability for Rivet: ~82.6% (odds 1.21)
- • Our estimated probability: 48% → required odds for value would be ≥2.083
Pros
- + Rivet is priced as a clear market favorite, implying match control if information is missing
- + Has match experience on both clay and hard from the provided profile
Cons
- - Career win rate under 50% (18-20) undermines the 82% market implied probability
- - No information on Timeo Trufelli or H2H, creating high uncertainty about matchup dynamics
Details
We compare the market price (Maxence Rivet 1.21 => implied ~82.6%) to our assessment based only on the provided player data. Rivet's career record in the research is 18-20 (≈47% win rate) with mixed/limited recent results on hard and clay; there is no information on Timeo Trufelli, no H2H, and no injury or contextual data to justify an 82%+ true win probability. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 48% for Rivet, the EV at the listed home price is negative (0.48 * 1.21 - 1 ≈ -0.419), so the market price offers no value. We therefore recommend not betting on either side at the current odds.
Key factors
- • Career record 18-20 (~47% win rate) suggests below-favorite baseline
- • Recent results in research are mixed/limited; no clear winning trend
- • Surfaces played include clay and hard (no clear surface edge indicated)
- • No opponent info or H2H available to justify heavy market favoritism