Highlights

• • Zhukov shows recent wins at this exact Maanshan hard event
• • Current market overvalues Agafonov; 2.20 for Zhukov clears our 1/p threshold

Pros

• + Event-level form advantage for Zhukov on hard courts
• + Price (2.20) exceeds our minimum required odds (2.083) for a positive EV

Cons

• - Small sample and noisy match logs across both players limit confidence
• - Market favorite still has a solid baseline record and the overround introduces uncertainty

Details

We see Agafonov as the market favorite at 1.629 (implied ~61.4%) while Zhukov is priced at 2.20 (implied ~45.5%). Comparing the provided profiles, both players have very similar season records (Zhukov 31-25, Agafonov 31-22) and both have experience on hard courts, but the recent match log shows Zhukov with wins at this Maanshan hard event while Agafonov recorded a loss there. That event-specific form pushes our belief that Zhukov's true chance is closer to 48% rather than the 45.5% implied by current odds. Using p=0.48 against the available 2.20 price yields a positive EV (EV = 0.48*2.20 - 1 = +0.056). The market also has an overround (~6.8%) which inflates the favorite price; we view the favorite (Agafonov) as over-priced relative to the localized form advantage for Zhukov. Therefore we recommend backing Zhukov only because the current 2.20 offers value versus our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Event-specific recent form: Zhukov posted wins at Maanshan hard while Agafonov had a loss there
• • Comparable season records and surface experience reduce a large skill gap
• • Market overround (~6.8%) and favorite inflation make the underdog price more attractive