Highlights

• • Home price 1.35 implies ~74% chance — appears overpriced given Janvier's 22-41 career mark
• • Away at 3.11 implies ~32% market chance; our 38% estimate yields positive EV (~0.18)

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current widely-available price (3.11)
• + Qualifiers and grass surface increase upset potential, which supports the underdog case

Cons

• - Limited direct data on Olivetti in the provided research increases estimation uncertainty
• - Janvier may still be favored by form/rank/context not detailed in the supplied sources

Details

The market prices Maxime Janvier at 1.35 (implied win probability ~74.1%), which appears steep given the documented career record (22-41) and clearly poor recent form in the provided match history. Using only the supplied research, we conservatively estimate Albano Olivetti's true chance at 38.0% (0.38). That implies required decimal odds of 2.632 to break even; the current away price of 3.11 offers value. At our estimate Olivetti EV = 0.38 * 3.11 - 1 = +0.182 (18.2% ROI per unit staked). We account for surface (grass) increasing serve/hold dynamics and the qualifiers context raising upset potential, and therefore the market's heavy favoritism toward the home player looks overstated.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Janvier (74%) far exceeds his career win rate and recent form
• • Provided career record (22-41) suggests Janvier is vulnerable and market may be overrating him
• • Grass surface and qualifier setting increase variance and upset likelihood