Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Hemery: ~64.3% (1.556)
• • Our estimated probability for Hemery: 62.0% → no positive EV at current odds

Pros

• + Hemery's superior recent form and higher career win rate support him as the match favorite
• + Both players have grass experience, limiting surface-based surprises

Cons

• - Provided data lacks head-to-head and detailed grass-specific performance metrics
• - The bookmaker price (1.556) already reflects Hemery's advantage and offers no positive expected value by our estimates

Details

We reviewed both players' recent form, career records and the grass surface. Calvin Hemery (overall record ~39-34) shows materially better recent results and a higher career win rate than Maxime Janvier (22-41), which supports Hemery being the market favorite. The current market decimal for Hemery is 1.556, implying a market win probability of ~64.3%. Based on the available data (overall records, recent results and both having some grass experience but no clear head-to-head data), we estimate Hemery's true winning probability at 62.0%. At that probability the fair decimal would be ~1.613, which is above Janvier's market price but still higher than Hemery's market price; using the market price of 1.556 for Hemery produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.556 - 1 = -0.0353). We therefore do not find positive value on either side at the displayed prices and recommend no bet. Odds used for EV calculation: 1.556 (Hemery current decimal).

Key factors

• • Calvin Hemery has a stronger overall win-loss record and better recent form than Maxime Janvier
• • Both players have played on grass, but there is no clear advantage from surface-specific stats in the provided data
• • Market-implied probability (64.3%) exceeds our estimated true probability (62%), producing negative EV at current price