Highlights

• • Gerasimov has a significantly better recent win-loss profile on hard courts
• • Current 1.88 price implies ~53% but we estimate ~59%, creating positive EV

Pros

• + Clear surface and record advantage for the away player
• + Balanced market price presents an exploitable edge

Cons

• - Data set is limited to the provided summaries; small-sample variability can impact outcomes
• - If conditions or unreported injuries differ, estimated probability could be invalidated

Details

We see a clear discrepancy between the market price (both players at 1.88) and our assessment based on career records and surface competence. Janvier's career record in the period provided is substantially below .500 (22-41), while Gerasimov sits around even-to-positive (22-21) with the majority of his matches on hard courts — the same surface shown in recent tournaments. Recent form also lists both players competing on hard courts, but Gerasimov's overall win rate and greater hard-court specialization suggest a materially higher true win probability than the market-implied ~53.2%. At a quoted 1.88 for the away moneyline, we estimate positive value on Gerasimov. Using our estimated true probability (0.59) the 1.88 price yields an expected value of ~+0.109 per unit staked, meaning the market is underestimating Gerasimov by roughly 6 percentage points.

Key factors

• • Win-loss differentials: Gerasimov ~50% vs Janvier ~35% in provided period
• • Surface alignment: recent and majority activity on hard courts favors Gerasimov
• • Market price is balanced (1.88 each), creating value where one player demonstrably outperforms