Maxime Janvier vs Stuart Parker
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Parker represents a small-value play at current odds (1.685) — our estimate gives a slight edge, producing ~+1.1% ROI on a 1-unit stake.
Highlights
- • Parker priced at 1.685 implies 59.3% — we estimate 60.0%
- • Edge is small; this is a thin-value bet rather than a large overlay
Pros
- + Clearer historical performance and recent form advantage in the available data
- + Current price just marginally above our required threshold (min required odds 1.667)
Cons
- - Edge margin is very small and sensitive to model assumptions
- - Limited match-level detail and no explicit H2H or up-to-date injury data increase uncertainty
Details
We favor Stuart Parker on grass based on a materially stronger win-loss record (39-26 vs 22-41) and more consistent recent form in the provided match logs. The market prices Parker at 1.685 (implied win probability ~59.3%). Our read of the available data gives Parker a ~60.0% chance to win this qualifier match — a small edge over the market. Translating that estimate to value: at 1.685 decimal the expected value is positive (EV ≈ +0.011 per 1 unit staked). The advantage is slim, so this is a tight value play rather than a large overlay; it depends on accepting the slight model edge driven by superior career and recent results on similar surfaces.
Key factors
- • Stuart Parker's superior overall win-loss record in the provided profiles (39-26 vs 22-41)
- • Both players have grass experience, but recent form and match count favor Parker
- • Market-implied probability (59.3%) is slightly below our estimated true probability (60%), producing a small positive EV