Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.80 is 55.6%; we estimate 57.0%
• • Minimum fair odds based on our estimate: 1.754, market price is slightly higher

Pros

• + Surface experience advantage for the home player
• + Higher-level match experience compared with opponent

Cons

• - Overall records for both players show inconsistency; Janvier's aggregate form is mixed
• - Edge is small and sensitive to estimation error and limited sample size on grass

Details

We see value backing Maxime Janvier at 1.80. Janvier has grass experience while Adrien Gobat's recent documented matches are on clay/hard/carpet with no noted grass results, suggesting a surface edge for Janvier. Gobat's recent results come at lower-tier M15 events, whereas Janvier has more Challenger-level exposure; that quality gap on grass increases the probability Janvier wins. The market-implied probability for Janvier at 1.80 is 55.6% (1/1.8). We estimate Janvier's true win probability around 57.0%, which implies a minimum fair price of ~1.754. At the current 1.80 price this yields a small positive EV (≈ +0.026 per unit). The edge is modest and sensitive to uncertainty in form and small-sample surface history, so we treat this as a medium-risk value play rather than a strong, low-risk recommendation.

Key factors

• • Janvier has documented grass experience while Gobat lacks recorded grass matches
• • Gobat's recent results are largely at lower-tier M15 level vs Janvier's Challenger exposure
• • Market-implied probability (55.6%) is slightly lower than our estimate (57.0%), creating a small value edge