Maya Joint / Caty Mcnally vs Katarzyna Piter / Sabrina Santamaria
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No bet — the favorite is overvalued at 1.455 versus our estimated 60% win probability; required odds to find value are ~1.667 or higher.
Highlights
- • Market implies ~68.7% for home; we estimate ~60%
- • Close matchup on hard courts with offsetting strengths
Pros
- + Home pair includes Caty Mcnally, a positive doubles factor
- + Both teams have recent activity on hard surfaces (familiar conditions)
Cons
- - Market price for favorite is above our fair probability — negative EV
- - Opponent includes an experienced doubles specialist (Santamaria) which evens the matchup
Details
We find no value on the home moneyline at current prices. The market prices the Maya Joint / Caty Mcnally pair at decimal 1.455 (implied ~68.7%). Our assessment, based only on the provided player profiles and recent results, is that the matchup is much closer — we estimate the home pair's true win probability around 60%. Both sides show similar recent form on hard courts and comparable overall records; Caty Mcnally gives the home side a modest doubles edge, but Sabrina Santamaria is a seasoned doubles specialist who offsets that advantage. Because our estimated probability (60%) is below the market-implied probability (~68.7%), the favorite is overpriced and does not offer positive expected value at 1.455.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1.455) is ~68.7% and exceeds our estimate
- • Both pairs show similar recent form and records on hard courts in the provided profiles
- • Caty Mcnally gives a slight edge to home, but Sabrina Santamaria's doubles experience balances matchup