Maya Joint vs Linda Fruhvirtova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The market appears to overvalue Maya Joint; we estimate Linda Fruhvirtova's true win chance around 42% which makes the 3.15 price a positive EV opportunity.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for the away is ~31.8%, our estimate is 42%
- • Required odds to break even on our estimate are ~2.381; current 3.15 is well above that
Pros
- + Price (3.15) offers a clear margin over our conservative probability estimate
- + Both players' records and form provided do not justify the large favorite margin
Cons
- - Limited data in the research (no H2H, venue specifics, or injuries) increases model uncertainty
- - If there are unseen factors favoring the home player, the value dissipates quickly
Details
We find value backing Linda Fruhvirtova (away) at the available price of 3.15. The market-implied probability for Maya Joint at 1.36 is ~73.5% and for Fruhvirtova at 3.15 is ~31.8% (raw, before vig). The research shows both players with nearly identical career records and recent form (10-21 overall, several recent losses), with no clear injury or H2H information favoring a large gap. Given the symmetric profiles and no clear advantage, we estimate Linda's true win probability materially higher than the market-implied 31.8% — we estimate her true probability at 42.0%. At that probability the 3.15 price yields positive expected value (EV = 0.42 * 3.15 - 1 = 0.323). The book currently overprices Maya relative to what the available background suggests; backing the away player therefore represents value. We used the listed current moneyline (3.15) for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Both players show almost identical career records and recent form (10-21), reducing a clear-performance gap
- • Current market pricing heavily favors the home player (1.36) despite no supporting differential in the provided data
- • No injury, H2H, or surface advantage information in the research to justify the market skew