Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Korpatsch
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Given near-identical form and no clear edges in the research, the market favorite (Sherif at 1.699) is priced too short relative to our estimate; no value bet is present.
Highlights
- • Sherif is the market favorite at 1.699 (implied ~58.9%)
- • Our model estimates Sherif's win chance at ~55%, implying fair odds ~1.818 — current price is shorter
Pros
- + Both players have recent match data in the research, allowing a conservative parity read
- + No reported injuries or conditions that would unexpectedly swing the outcome
Cons
- - Available data is limited and both players have poor, volatile recent form — outcomes can be swingy
- - Lack of head-to-head or more granular match-level stats in the provided research reduces confidence
Details
We find no exploitable value at the current prices. Both players show nearly identical seasonal records and recent form in the provided data (around 10-22 / 10-21), with no clear injury or surface edge reported. The market prices Mayar Sherif as the favorite at 1.699 (implied ~58.9%); based on the available research (comparable form, surfaces played, and recent losses for both) we estimate Sherif's true win probability at ~55.0%. That probability implies fair decimal odds of ~1.818, which is longer than the offered 1.699, so backing Sherif at 1.699 yields a negative expected value. Korpatsch at 2.18 would require a true win probability of ~45.9% to be fair; our assessment does not support that high a chance for the underdog given the parity in the data. Because neither side presents positive EV vs. our probabilities, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Very similar seasonal records and recent results for both players in the provided dataset
- • No injury or surface advantage reported in the research to justify diverging from market pricing
- • Market prices favor Sherif (1.699) more than our assessed probability (55%), removing value