Highlights

• • Market implies only ~10% for the away; we estimate ~18%
• • Positive EV of ~0.73 at current decimal price 9.63

Pros

• + Large price discrepancy between market and our probability estimate
• + Both players' seasonal records and surface histories support a higher upset probability than market implies

Cons

• - Both players show poor recent form, which creates volatility and uncertainty
• - Lack of head-to-head data and limited match-level context increases model uncertainty

Details

We see a large disconnect between the market price and what we estimate as a realistic upset chance. The market makes Mayar Sherif a 1.065 favourite (implied ~93.5%) and prices Nahia Berecoechea at 9.63 (implied ~10.4%). The research shows both players have nearly identical seasonal records (Sherif 10-22, Berecoechea 10-21) and both have recent poor form, with matches on clay and hard listed. There is no reported injury or clear head-to-head advantage in the provided data. Given the similar win-loss profiles and both having experience on the surfaces involved, we view a Berecoechea upset probability materially higher than the market-implied ~10%. We estimate Berecoechea's true probability at 18% (0.18). At the available price of 9.63 this produces substantial positive expected value (EV = 0.18*9.63 - 1 = +0.733), so the away moneyline represents value. We conservatively account for Mayar's nominal profile advantage but not at the extreme level implied by 1.065.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for the underdog (~10.4%) appears too low versus both players' similar seasonal records
• • Both players have comparable recent form and surface exposure (clay and hard) in the provided data
• • No reported injuries or clear H2H edge in the research, increasing the chance of an upset relative to market pricing