Mayar Sherif vs Tamara Korpatsch
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Tamara Korpatsch at 3.12: estimating her win chance ~38% yields an EV ≈ +0.186 (18.6% ROI) versus the market breakeven of ~32.1%.
Highlights
- • Market breakeven for away is ~32.05%; we estimate 38%
- • Sherif’s recent results in the research suggest form concerns
Pros
- + Available price (3.12) implies favorable upside versus our probability model
- + Korpatsch’s longer track record and clay experience reduce downside versus an in-form-only read
Cons
- - Limited, noisy recent-match snippets and no head-to-head or explicit injury info increase uncertainty
- - Sherif may still be favored for reasons not visible in the provided data (ranking, recent practice, or fitness)
Details
We compare the market price (Korpatsch 3.12 decimal) to our estimate of her true win probability. The book requires ~32.05% win probability (1/3.12) for a breakeven bet. Given the research, Mayar Sherif shows poor recent form (10-22 over the provided span, multiple recent losses on hard) while Tamara Korpatsch brings a long, broadly successful career and regular clay experience. With Sherif’s form question marks and Korpatsch’s deeper win history and clay familiarity, we estimate Korpatsch’s true win chance materially above the breakeven threshold. Using a conservative estimated_true_probability of 0.38 (38%), the expected value at the available 3.12 price is positive: EV = 0.38 * 3.12 - 1 = 0.186 (18.6% ROI). We therefore recommend the away side only because current prices offer value; uncertainty around recent match specifics, H2H and potential undisclosed fitness issues keeps the recommendation at medium risk.
Key factors
- • Mayar Sherif recent form is weak in the provided span (10-22 record)
- • Tamara Korpatsch has long-term career success and plays clay regularly
- • Current market requires ~32.05% for Korpatsch to be +EV; our estimate is 38%