Megan Heuser vs Ellie Daniels
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value: market makes Heuser a heavy favorite but available performance data suggest her win chance (~33%) is far lower than implied, producing a negative expected value at 1.287.
Highlights
- • Heuser's career and recent form suggest true probability around 33%
- • Current market odds (1.287) imply a much higher probability, creating negative EV
Pros
- + Clear mismatch between market price and documented recent performance
- + Decision supported by concrete career win-loss record
Cons
- - Opponent (Ellie Daniels) information is not provided, creating uncertainty
- - Surface/venue and short-term variables are not fully known and could change probabilities
Details
The market prices Megan Heuser as a strong favorite (1.287 => ~77.7% raw implied). However, Heuser's documented career record (10-21, ~32% win rate) and explicitly poor recent results indicate her true win probability is materially lower than the market implies. We conservatively estimate her true probability at 33% based on career win rate and recent form; at that probability the fair decimal price would be ~3.03. At the current quoted home price (1.287) the expected value is strongly negative, so we do not recommend backing either side at the available prices.
Key factors
- • Career win rate is low (10-21) suggesting ~32% baseline chance
- • Recent match results show losses and poor form, lowering short-term probability
- • Market-implied probability (heavy favorite) appears inconsistent with available performance data