Highlights

• • Market prices Mell as ~75% favorite despite inferior career win rate and tiny sample
• • Berta priced at 3.07 offers substantial overlay if true probability is ~45%

Pros

• + Strong value vs bookmaker-implied probability
• + Berta's extensive experience and higher career win rate support an underpriced away price

Cons

• - Limited match-level context (no H2H or recent detailed form beyond a couple of losses)
• - Small-sample noise for Mell could hide improvements or context not captured in research

Details

We estimate meaningful value on Berta Bonardi (away). The market prices Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez at 1.334 (implied win probability ~74.9%), which conflicts with the head-to-head data available here: Mell's small sample (31 matches) shows a 10-21 record (~32.3% career win rate) while Berta has a deep professional record (1066 matches, 559-507, ~52.5% career win rate). Both players have experience on hard and clay, and recent results in the research show both with recent losses, so surface/recency don't clearly favor Mell. Given Berta's far greater experience and higher career win rate, we assess Berta's true chance substantially above the market-implied 32.6% (away implied probability). We estimate Berta's true win probability at 45%, which implies a fair price of ~2.222 decimal. At the available price of 3.07, the bet has positive expected value (EV = 0.45*3.07 - 1 = +0.382). Therefore we recommend the away side as a value play against an inflated favorite price for Mell.

Key factors

• • Berta's far greater experience (1066 matches) and superior career win rate (~52.5%)
• • Mell's small sample (31 matches) with a low career win rate (~32.3%), making the heavy favorite line questionable
• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Mell (~74.9%) appears inconsistent with the players' career records and comparable surface experience