Highlights

• • Market implies only ~16.4% for the away but research shows near-identical player profiles
• • At our 22% probability estimate, the away line 6.10 yields ~34% ROI

Pros

• + Clear numerical edge between our probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV at current odds

Cons

• - Limited and noisy data (small sample, few distinguishing metrics) increases uncertainty in the probability estimate
• - Betting large on an underdog is high variance even when EV positive

Details

We see value on the away side (Duanrui Gao). The market prices Meng Yi Chen at 1.11 (implied ~90.1% win probability) and Gao at 6.10 (implied ~16.4%). The available research shows both players with nearly identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form and surface experience, with no clear injury or matchup edge in the provided data. Given the symmetry in profiles and lack of distinguishing factors, we estimate the away player’s true win probability materially above the market-implied 16.4%. Using a conservative estimate that Gao has a 22.0% chance to win, the expected value at current decimal odds (6.10) is positive: EV = 0.22 * 6.10 - 1 = 0.342 (34.2% ROI per unit staked). Because the current market odds (6.10) are higher than the minimum fair decimal odds implied by our probability (1 / 0.22 = 4.545), this represents a value bet under our model.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical recorded form (10-21) and similar recent results in the supplied data
• • No injury, surface or H2H advantage is documented in the provided research to justify the heavy market favoritism
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (16.4%) appears too low given the similarity between the two competitors