Highlights

• • Market implies home win ~85.5% while Meng's recorded win rate is ~32.3%
• • Estimated away win probability 67.7% => required odds 1.477; current 4.6 far exceeds that

Pros

• + Large edge vs. market price if Meng's career win rate is a valid proxy
• + High theoretical ROI at the quoted away price

Cons

• - Only one player's stats are available; opponent ability and match context are unknown
• - Small sample and recent form details are limited — model risk is significant

Details

The market strongly favors the home player at 1.17 (implied ~85.5%), but the only available performance data (Meng Yi Chen career record 10-21, 10 wins in 31 matches = 32.3% win rate) suggests she is the underperforming player. Using Meng's observed win rate as the best available proxy implies the away player has an estimated true win probability of 67.7% (1 - 0.323). At the quoted away decimal 4.6 (implied ~21.7%), this represents substantial mispricing and a large positive expected value. We acknowledge the sample is limited and opponent/surface/context data are missing, which raises model uncertainty, but strictly from the provided data the away side offers clear value versus the market price.

Key factors

• • Meng Yi Chen career win-rate 10/31 = 32.3% (poor historical performance)
• • Market odds heavily favor home (1.17) implying ~85.5% — large divergence from player form data
• • No opponent-specific or contextual data provided, increasing model uncertainty