Meng-Yi Chen vs Fangzhou Liu

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Chen ~24% but we estimate ~36% true chance
• • Current price (4.15) is substantially above our breakeven (2.778)

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our fair odds gives clear positive EV
• + Both players' recent form and records are similar — reduces justification for heavy favorite

Cons

• - Limited data and identical records create uncertainty; variance is high in lower-tier events
• - No detailed head-to-head or contextual info (court conditions, fitness) was provided, increasing risk

Details

We see a large market gap: the market prices Fangzhou Liu at 1.253 (≈79.8% implied) and Meng-Yi Chen at 4.15 (≈24.1% implied). The player profiles presented show virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar recent results on the same surfaces, with no injury information or clear matchup edge listed for Liu. Given the parity in form, surface history and sample size limitations, the market is likely over-favoring Liu (probable bias to a name/recent event) and underpricing Chen. Conservatively we estimate Chen's true win probability at 36%, which implies fair odds of 2.778. At the current price of 4.15 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.36*4.15 - 1 = +0.494). Therefore we recommend backing the home player (Meng-Yi Chen) because the available decimal price offers material value relative to our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical career records and surface experience (10-21), indicating parity
• • Market implies Liu ~80% but available evidence does not support such a large gap — likely overreaction
• • No injury or matchup data favoring Liu was presented; small sample sizes increase variance and value opportunities