Meng Yi Chen vs Fangzhou Liu

Highlights

• • Home price 3.30 implies only ~30% win chance — we assess this is too low
• • Positive EV of ~0.485 (48.5% ROI) using conservative true probability estimate

Pros

• + Market offers a large price for a player with similar credentials to the favorite
• + Provided recent match stat (1st-serve-won) favors Meng in available samples

Cons

• - Small sample sizes and poor recent overall form for both players increase variance
• - No head-to-head or injury/fitness info in the provided data to reduce uncertainty

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 3.30, Away 1.30) to our assessment of each player using only the provided match data. Both players carry nearly identical career records (10-21 over 31 matches) and similar surfaces played (clay/hard), so baseline competitive equity is close. Recent match-level stats show Meng Yi Chen posted an 83% 1st-serve-won mark in a recent hard-court loss (01-Sep-2025), while Fangzhou Liu showed a lower 69% 1st-serve-won in a recent hard match (08-Sep-2025). Given the parity in overall records and slightly stronger recent serve-winning metric for Meng, we estimate Meng is underpriced by the market. At our estimated true probability for Meng of 0.45, the fair decimal price is ~2.22, well below the offered 3.30. That creates positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 3.30 - 1 = 0.485 (48.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We use the current market decimal 3.30 for the EV calculation. Caveats: small sample sizes, both players in poor recent form and no head-to-head data; this increases model uncertainty and overall risk despite the large nominal edge implied by the market price.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and surfaces played (10-21, 31 matches) implying baseline parity
• • Recent match stats favor Meng on serve (83% 1st-serve-won vs 69% for Fangzhou in provided matches)
• • Market heavily favors Away (1.30) which likely overstates the gap given the available data