Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Hoedt: ~81.4% (1/1.229)
• • Our assessed probability: 50% → required decimal odds ≥ 2.000 for value

Pros

• + Hoedt is the market favorite and likely the safer pick if forced to choose based on implied probability
• + If undisclosed factors favor Hoedt (injuries to opponent, surface edge), market odds might be justified

Cons

• - Provided data shows poor recent form and an overall losing record for Hoedt
• - No information on Nehira Sanon in the research increases uncertainty and prevents confident positive-edge betting

Details

The market prices Merel Hoedt at 1.229 (implied ~81.4% win probability). Our assessment, based only on the provided data, is far more conservative: Hoedt's career record in the research is 10-21 (≈32% historical win rate) and her recent form shows multiple straight losses. There is no provided information on Nehira Sanon to justify such a large market edge. Given Hoedt's weak recent results and the lack of positive evidence that she should be a ~80% favorite, we estimate her true win probability at 50%. At that estimate the current price of 1.229 offers a large negative expectation, so we do not recommend backing either side at the quoted odds. For value to exist on Hoedt at our estimate she would need to be priced at decimal odds >= 2.000.

Key factors

• • Hoedt's documented career W-L (10-21) suggests limited historical winning baseline
• • Recent match list in the research shows multiple losses and weak form
• • Market implies an implausibly high probability (~81%) given the available performance data; lack of info on the opponent increases uncertainty